Analysis of sustainability on urban structure considering tsunami disaster risk

津波災害リスクを考慮した都市構造の持続可能性についての分析


A STUDY ON THE RESIDENTIAL LOCATION TREND CONSIDERING TSUNAMI RISK IN TOKUSHIMA URBAN AREA

徳島都市圏における津波危険性を考慮した住宅立地傾向の分析

The purpose of this paper is to show the residential location trend considering Tsunami risk in Tokushima Urban Area (TUA). Building certification data was used to show residential location from 2010 to 2013. We analyzed residential location trend from this data and Tsunami inundation potential data. Comparing residential location trend before and after Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE), demand for new houses in west part of TUA without Tsunami risk is increasing, but urbanization has been continuing in Tsunami inundation area after GEJE. Finally, we classified the target area using residential location trend and Tsunami risk, and showed the area which needs to be controlled or promote urbanization.

本研究では，徳島都市圏を対象に，住宅立地動向と津波災害危険性との関係を分析した．住宅立地データとして，2010∼2013年度の建築確認申請データを用いた．4次メッシュ別の住宅立地動向を見ると，非線引きの藍住町や各市町中心部，北島町全域，国道沿いで増加していた．経年変化を見ると，西部で増加，阿南市沿岸域で減少する傾向にあった．次に，津波浸水深別に住宅立地を集計したところ，浸水域外の立地が進む一方，少ないながらも浸水域の立地も継続していた．住宅立地要因を示すために，重回帰分析を行ったところ，利便性と区域区分の影響が大きいものの，2011年度以降は海岸線からの距離が離れるほど住宅立地が進む傾向にあることが示された．最後に，4次メッシュ別で津波危険性を考慮した住宅立地傾向の分類を行い，その結果より，分類別の土地利用規制，誘導の方向性を示した．

日本建築学会計画系論文集


Estimation of Residence Information of Twitter Users based on their Posted Messages --- Data for Tourism Development

International Journal of Research in Chemical Metallurgical and Civil Engineering


Relative analysis of factors of place attachment - Case study in the Tokushima urban area-

Advances in Civil Engineering and Building Materials IV


EVALUATION OF INTRODUCING RESIDENTIAL LAND USE IN CENTRAL AREA OF LOCAL CITY

地方都市都心部における住宅地導入の可能性評価に関する研究

In order to promote the urban residence for aged society in the future, it is important to create a residential land use in central urban area. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the suitability of residential area based on the relationship between demand and supply of land in central urban area. Land value function models are used to show demand and supply of residential use. Using the estimated land value function models, we calculate the evaluation values of residential areas. As a result, we clarify the areas considered to be preferable for residential land use in central urban area of Tokushima city.

将来の高齢社会に向けた都心居住の推進は，地方都市における都市計画の重要な課題の1つと考えられる．本研究では，地方都市である徳島市都心部をケーススタディとした．現在の土地所有者の土地供給関数，商業地としての利用を前提とした土地需要関数，住宅地としての利用を前提とした土地需要関数を推定し，それぞれの最終需要者が決定した土地利用から，土地の需給関係を比較分析することによって，住宅地導入の可能性を評価した．アンケート結果によると現在，商業地としての衰退傾向が著しい地域においても，地方都市が本来有する居住快適性に着目し，住環境整備を効率的に進めることで，高い資産価値を有する住宅地の創出が可能であると結論付けた．都心の地価構造を最終需要者の利用用途の側面から分析し，住宅地導入の可能性を面的かつ計量的に把握した本研究の成果は，将来における多面的な土地利用に有用な計画情報になると考えられる．

日本建築学会計画系論文集


Improvement of Parks to Contribute to Increase in Physical Activity Based on Suevey of Awareness and Behaviour

住民意識・行動調査に基づく身体活動量の増加に寄与する都市公園整備に関する研究

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan


Proposal of Policies for Promoting Physical Activity for Access to Living Environment Facilities and their Effects

生活環境施設の利用を目的とした交通行動による身体活動量増進策の提案と効果に関する研究

Many studies show that regular moderate physical activity such as walking and cycling is beneficial for health promotion. The aim of this study is to propose policies promoting physical activity and measure their effects. Focusing on the transport behavior access to living environment facilities, two policies are considered. One is supplying well-paved road for walking and cycling, another is providing information about the relationship between physical activity and health. First, we estimate the health awareness of residents by a questionnaire survey carried out in Tokuhsima urban areas and find out that about 30% of residents are considered health is important in their behavior. And then, the quantity of physical activity is calculated. The quantity of physical activity under policies is found to be 1.5~7.2Ex per week more than that without policies.

本研究は，健康まちづくりを構築するための情報提供を念頭に，徳島都市圏住民の日常生活における生活環境施設利用に着目し，住民の健康意識を把握するとともに，生活環境施設利用による身体活動量の増進策を2つ提案し，評価を行ったものである．1つは歩行・自転車走行環境整備案で，1つは健康情報提供案である．まず，住民の健康意識を把握した結果，住民の約3割が健康志向者であることがわかり，健康志向者の徒歩，自転車利用率は利便性志向者より高くなっていることが確認された．また，歩行・自転車走行環境の整備や健康情報の提供といった政策案の実施によって最小1.5(Ex/週)最大7.2(Ex/週)の身体活動量を得られることを明らかにすることができた．このように，歩道の環境整備や健康情報の提供といった健康増進政策は徳島都市圏住民の身体活動量増進につながることが示唆された．


Analysis of Consumer Shopping Behavior using Micro Simulation --- A Case Study on Tokushima Urban Areas

マイクロシミュレーションアプローチによる買物行動分析 --- 徳島都市圏におけるケーススタディ

The purpose of this study is to analyze shopping behavior in household types, that are distinguished by the place of residence and the family structure. We simulate the shopping behaviour of households using micro simulation. The simulation model has the shopping consciousness parameters, which are estimated using socio-economic data. Genetic algorithm(GA) is used for estimating the parameters. As factors to explain shopping conciousness, the distance and shop space are used. As a result, the model we propose in this study can reduce the reproductive error by a conventional model in which household types are not considered. Moreover, the model suggests that the distance sensitivity is caused by the differences of the family structure, and the shop space sensitivity is caused by the differences of the residence.

本研究では徳島都市圏に居住する消費者の購買選好を明らかにすることを目的としたマイクロシミュレーションを実施した．具体的には消費者として世帯を取り上げ，世帯群を居住地・家族構成を基に世帯類型に分類し，各世帯類型の購買選好を国勢調査をはじめとする集計データから推計した．購買選好を構成する要素として売場面積と世帯-店舗距離を取り上げ，これらに対する選好係数を遺伝的アルゴリズムを用いて最適化する事で推計を行った．シミュレーションの結果，提案モデルは世帯区分を意識しないモデルに対して高い現実再現性を示した．更に家族構成が売場面積選好に，居住地が距離選好にそれぞれ大きな影響を与える可能性を確認できた．


DEVELOPMENT OF DIGITAL MUSEUM FOR URBAN DESIGN OF HISTORICAL TOURISM --- Case study of Shouzui ruins

歴史観光まちづくり支援のためのデジタル博物館の開発 --- 勝瑞遺跡におけるケーススタディ

The purpose of this study is to develop the Shouzui ruins Digital Museum (SDM). SDM consists of three modules; the mobile information system, the website of historical information and the subsystem of the website. The mobile information system offers historical information on the site, using the cellular phone based website. The website of historical information offers more detailed information. Subsystem of the website shows the points where a user visited and visitor's comments. Evaluation of the SDM was carried out by cellular phone users. From the results of the evaluation, usefulness of the SDM was shown as a digital museum.

本研究では，徳島県勝瑞遺跡とその周辺部を対象に，歴史観光まちづくり活動を支援するための勝瑞遺跡デジタル博物館(SDM)を開発した．AISASモデルを歴史観光まちづくりに当てはめ，この流れを実現するために，携帯サイト，PCサイト，個人用サイトに分けて開発した．携帯サイトは携帯電話用ウェブサイトとARを用いた景観再現システムにより，現地での情報提供を可能にした．PCサイトは，勝瑞遺跡を5つのカテゴリーに分け，カテゴリー別に詳細ページを用意し，ユーザビリティに配慮したサイトとした．個人用サイトは，時空間マップ，見学履歴の表示などにより訪問後の情報提供に加え，ユーザの感想を表示させることで，勝瑞遺跡に注意を引きつけるためのきっかけとすることができた．最後に被験者実験を行い，その結果からSDMの有用性と問題点，今後の課題を示した．


CHANGES IN LOCATION OF LARGE-SCALE RETAIL STORES AND SHOPPING BEHAVIOR IN TOKUSHIMA PREFECTURE

徳島県における大規模小売店舗の立地の変遷と消費者の買物行動の変化に関する分析

The purpose of this study is to clarify changes in location of large-scale retail stores in Tokushima prefecture and the shopping behavior of consumers. First, change in location of large-scale retail stores in suburban areas is observed. Second, after the change of shopping behavior is analyzed, the relationship between changes in shopping behavior and the large-scale retail stores is explained. Third, importance of factors which influence shopping behavior is clarified using the shopping behavioral model. As a result, it was found that the mechanism of shopping demand to the large-scale retail stores in suburbs increased in recent years.

日本建築学会計画系論文集


A Study on Government Subsidy for Seismic Renovation with Landscape Conservation in Historical Built-up Area

歴史的市街地における景観保全に配慮した耐震化のための行政補助金に関する研究

It is important to manage the landscape conservation and the improvement of the disaster mitigation performance in historical built-up area simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to analyze effect of government subsidy for seismic renovation with landscape conservation in historical built-up area. First, Willingness To Pay (WTP) for seismic renovation with landscape conservation was measured by CVM. Based on these values, the function which to calculate WTP was modeled by the concept of random utility model. From the result of the calculation, it was shown that economic value of historical landscape in south area of Tokushima was 2,475,440,000 yen. Lastly, the suitable subsidy to make promote seismic renovation with landscape conservation was calculated 280,000 yen per one house.

Journal of City Planning Institute of Japan


DEVELOPMENT OF TSUNAMI EVACUATION SIMULATION MODEL TO SUPPORT COMMUNITY PLANNING FOR TSUNAMI DISASTER MITIGATION

津波防災まちづくり計画支援のための津波避難シミュレーションモデルの開発

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Tsunami evacuation simulation model. In this model, which uses the concept of Multi-Agent Systems, each evacuee has an age, an evacuation speed, a number of neighborhood obstacles, a fatigue level and a consciousness of disaster mitigation as attribute data. Evacuation behavior is decided by interaction of these data and environment around the evacuee. This model was applied to Tomoura historical built-up area in Tokushima to evaluate six scenarios of disaster mitigation. From the results of these simulations, it was found that giving the Tsunami alert to all inhabitants quickly was the most important factor.

日本建築学会計画系論文集


ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER'S SHOPPING CONSCIOUSNESS AND BEHAVIOR IN LOCAL URBAN AREA

地方都市における消費者の買物意識と行動の分析

Recently in Japan, aging and depopulation trends have made it increasingly important to advance the development of centralized urban housing for elderly citizens. The purpose of this study is to analyze the needs of an aging consumer in order to tailor commercial facilities to their needs. Data for elderly citizens and the general population were collected using a consumer consciousness and behavior survey. The resulting data were sorted by age group, mode of transportation and item of purchase, and analyzed by application of an existing satisfactory model. The results reveal a difference in both ideal shopping distance and actual distance traveled between elderly citizens and the general population. Results also vary according to item of purchase and mode of transportation. This study provides foundational information for the future development of commercial facilities around centralized urban areas.

日本建築学会計画系論文集


DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND USE PLANNING SUPPORT SYSTEM USING HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION PREDICTION MODEL

世帯の空間分布予測モデルを用いた土地利用計画支援システムの開発

In this paper, we developed a land use planning support system using the household distribution prediction model. The concept of multi-agent systems was used in the model. The agent of this model is a household. The agent decides decision of migration depending on its own conditions and migration potential at current address. Next, the agent starts to select the next address by land potential. If land potential of the next address is higher than the current address, the agent will migrate to the selected address. This model was incorporated in GIS to develop a land use planning support system.

日本建築学会計画系論文集


An Evaluation Model for Allocation of Urban Facilities Considering Needs of Elderly Citizens and its Application

高齢者の都心居住を考慮した都市施設の配置評価モデルとその地方圏への適用に関する研究

In recent years, Japan's population has continually decreased and grown older. It is widely believed that centralized urban housing will play a vital role in the future design of cities. With the needs of elderly citizens in mind, this research focused on the creation of a walkable urban environment taking into account the distance people are satisfied traveling to and from urban facilities. Focusing on the distance traveled to these facilities from the perspective of residents, a functional evaluative model for residential areas was successfully created, and key indicators for the evaluation of residential environments identified. This functional evaluative model was then applied to regional areas, and the present state of the overall residential environment was evaluated. This research finds that residential districts located closer to downtown areas rate more highly than those placed farther away.


A Development of Quantitative Evaluation Method for Capability of Community-based Disaster Mitigation Focused on Neighborhood Community Association

自治会に着目した定量的地域防災力評価手法開発の試み


QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY FOR LAND USE PLANNING SUPPORT TOOLS USING GIS

GISを用いた土地利用計画支援ツールに関するアンケート調査

The purpose of this study is to obtain information to develop land use planning support tools (PSS) using GIS through questionnaire survey. The focus of this survey is upon an urban planning section in provincial government, an urban planning consultant company and a private think tank company. The rate using GIS for land use planning is 56 percent, but GIS is mainly used as data management tools. In addition, many of those surveyed are using commercial GIS software more than PSS. Finally, many answers showed required functions of PSS are data management and mapping function, and desired use of PSS data is mainly for land use, zoning and population distribution.


Modeling Land Conversion in the Colombo Metropolitan Area Using Cellular Automata

This paper proposes a Cellular Automata (CA) model to evaluate the urbanization patterns arising from the regulation of urban growth on paddy lands in the Colombo Metropolitan Region (CMR). Most of the historic map data available for the CMR before 1990 are temporally sporadic and spatially incomplete. As an alternative to maps, classified remote sensing data are used to analyze the urbanization process. Logistic regression is applied to derive factors of urbanization and the various relationships among them. The relation between 'urban' and 'non urban' serves as an explanatory variable. The factors explaining that relationship are calculated by exploratory logistic regression analyses. The probability calculated from the statistical model is used for CA transition with a random number. Several growth patterns are simulated based on a range of transition thresholds to test the CA model. Status quo growth and several growth control scenarios are simulated for the period from 1987 to 2002 based on an optimum threshold. The simulation result of the status quo growth is evaluated with several evaluation methods. The level of agreement between the estimated result from the status quo model and the actual data is 62%, while the multi scale goodness of fit method produces highly accurate values for the given range of resolutions.

Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering


Cellular automata modeling of fire spread in built-up areas --- A tool to aid community-based planning for disaster mitigation

Japan has many built-up areas with a high proportion of old wooden structures. These areas will be badly damaged by collapsed buildings and the spread of fire in the event of a seismic disaster. The government is therefore focusing on the improvement of these areas. For the promotion of such improvement, there is a need to build consensus for disaster prevention countermeasures through community-based planning by both the residents concerned and the administration. In the present study, we developed a model as a planning support tool that can visually simulate the spread of fire. This model incorporates firefighting activities and can realistically show the detailed fire spreading process that traditional models cannot represent in built-up areas, using cellular automata. The model was applied to a historical built-up area in Japan. Based on the simulation results obtained by application of the model and the actual fire records of Japanese built-up areas, the calibration and reproducibility of the model were examined and reviewed. From the outcome of this process, we are confident that the use of simulation results is of value when examining the effects of improvements in the local environment during the collaborative planning process.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems


Development of a Land Use Planning Support Tool in the Developing Countries

開発途上国における土地利用計画支援ツールの開発

The purpose of this paper is to develop a land use planning support tool (LU-PST) in developing countries. LU-PST consists of an urban growth model and a land use zoning map support tool. The urban growth model is a Cellular Automata (CA) model, and population density by grid cell is calculated. The purpose of the land use zoning map support tool is to create zoning maps including residential, commercial, industrial and preservation zones. This tool used an AHP method in order to consider criterion for judgment of users. In order to develop the LU-PST, these two models were incorporated into ArcGIS (ESRI). It is possible for this tool to execute two tasks. One is for the land use zoning considered with urban growth trend. And the other is for the urban growth calculation based on a land use plan. The usefulness of LU-PST was discussed by analyzing the results of application to the Colombo Urban Area in Sri Lanka and considering comments about this tool from urban planners.


Analysis of the direct use value and the option value of the barrier-free maintenance for station facilities by CVM

CVM を用いた鉄道駅施設のバリアフリー化に関する直接的利用価値とオプション価値の分析

The purpose of this study is to calculate the value of barrier-free maintenance of railway station facilities for elderly and handicapped persons, as a direct use value and an option value. First, the questionnaire survey was executed to examine the willingness to pay (WTP) for barrier-free maintenance of railway station facilities. Next, we assumed the demand function of exponential type, and then the average of WTP is calculated. As a result, in the case of the barrier-free maintenance for elderly persons, a direct use value of elevator and escalator became highest value. In the case of the barrier-free maintenance for handicapped persons, an option value of elevator became highest value.

日本都市計画学会学術研究論文集


Urban Growth Simulation by using Atmospheric Pollution Gas Absorption by Vegetation Area

植生の大気汚染ガス吸収量を指標とした市街化シミュレーション

The purpose of this paper is to propose the urban growth simulation method using the atmospheric pollution gas absorption on vegetation area. First, Cellular Automata urban growth model was developed to estimate future urbanized area. Miyake's model (1990) was used to estimate atmospheric pollution gas absorption. Urban growth simulation for 1997 to 2007 was executed on five cases of urban development control by using the model which combined CA urban growth model and Miyake's model. If Aizumi city was designed urbanization control area, increase of amount of gas absorption was estimated from the results of model analysis.

本研究では，植生の大気汚染ガス吸収量を制約条件に用いた市街化シミュレーション手法を開発することを目的とする．まず，セルオートマトン(CA)市街化予測モデルを開発し，次に，既往研究で提案されている，植生の大気汚染ガス吸収量推計モデルを用いて，セル単位で大気汚染ガス吸収量を推計した．これらのモデルを用いて，4つの開発規制に関するシナリオを設定した場合と，大気汚染ガス吸収量を制約条件とした場合の1997年から2007年までの市街化シミュレーションを行った．その結果，未線引き区域を調整区域にした場合，その区域では一定程度の大気汚染ガス吸収量の増加が見込まれたが，対象地域全域では大きな変化はなかった．


A Comparison Study of the Allocation Problem of Undesirable Facilities Based on Residential Awareness --- A case study on waste disposal facility in ChengDu City, Sichuan China

The purpose of this paper is to propose a model, which can be used for allocation planning of undesirable facilities by analyzing citizen s awareness. As the endurance distance is regarded as a variable, the relation between the distance from the residential location to a waste facility and residential endurance rate is a problem of probability and statistics. Three kinds of stochastic methods are compared in this study.

Innovations in Design & Decision Support Systems in Architecture and Urban Planning


Development of a Support System for Community-based Disaster Mitigation Planning Integrated with a Fire Spread Simulation Model Using CA - The results of an experimentation for verification of its usefulness

This research carried out an experiment to verify the usefulness of a WebGIS-based system that we have been developing (A support system for community-disaster mitigation planning integrated with a fire spread simulation model using CA) BEFORE, DURING and AFTER Workshops. Based on the data collected from the experiment, the usefulness and advantages of the system were verified from various angles. As a result, it was found that even though there are still some issues to be solved, the system is useful and effective as a support tool and also in enhancing awareness before and after Workshops.


Planning of Allocation of Evacuation Facilities based on Residents Awareness of Disaster Prevention --- A Case Study in Susaki City

津波常襲地域住民の防災意識に基づく避難場所の配置計画 --- 須崎市を対象として


Evaluation of Tactile Networks for Guiding Visually Impaired Based on Efficiency and Safety

利用者の効率性と安全性に基づく視覚障害者誘導用ブロックのネットワーク評価に関する研究


Influence of Illegally Parked Bicycles on Safety for Visually Impaired in Walking

放置自転車が視覚障害者の歩行の安全性に及ぼす影響に関する研究

Urban development focusing on mobility for elderly and disabled people has been progressing rapidly since November in 2000 when the law to improve the environment where elderly and disabled people could move smoothly went into effect. As a result such persons visiting central urban areas where main stations are located have increased. However, as there are many illegally parked bicycles on footpaths in front of stations, such areas are not satisfactory with regard to safety and amenity space for all pedestrians. As the bicycles are often left on the tactile tiles, or guiding blocks, in this study, the influence of illegally parked bicycles on the pedestrian footpath is analyzed from the position of the visually impaired. At first, an interview for the visually impaired was carried out in order to explain characteristics of the visually impaired in walking and find the condition in safe walking. Next, an investigation for the condition of illegally parked bicycles was carried out in order to understand the actual condition of illegally parked bicycles in front of JR Tokushima station. Third, a questionnaire for bicycle users was carried out in order to understand the background reasons of illegally parked bicycles. As a result, even though the guiding blocks are built, it is not enough for the visually impaired to walk safely because of the existence of illegally parked bicycles. Finally, the subjects considered in order to improve the present conditions are described.

2000年11月に「交通バリアフリー法」が施行されてから，歩行空間のバリアを解消するための整備が急速に進められている．整備が進むにしたがって，高齢者や身体障害者等が公共交通機関を利用し，外出する機会が増加することが予測されるが，しかし一方で，主要な駅前歩道には自転車が多く放置され人々の歩行に様々な影響を及ぼしている．そこで，本研究では，歩道だけでなく，視覚障害者誘導用ブロックまでもが放置自転車によって占拠されている状況を受けて，歩行者の中でも，視覚障害者の歩行に着目し，放置自転車が視覚障害者の歩行時の安全性にどの程度の影響を及ぼしているかについて明らかにした．影響分析には，視覚障害者に対して実施した駅前歩行に関するヒアリング調査，JR徳島駅前周辺における放置自転車の実態調査および自転車利用者に対して実施したアンケート調査の結果を用い，結果として，誘導用ブロックが敷設されていたとしても，それだけでは視覚障害者の安全な歩行は確保できないことがわかった．その上で，「交通バリアフリー法」をより有効なものとするためにも，今後取り組まなければならない課題について示した．


ANALYSIS OF DEMAND FOR BARRIER-FREE HOUSE AND EFFECT IN REDUCTION OF BURDEN

住宅のバリアフリー化に対する需要と負担の軽減効果に関する研究

The study aims to analyze the demand and the effect for the barrier-free house from the economical viewpoint. Firstly, the questionnaire for inhabitant is executed to investigate the willingness to pay for each level of barrier-free. Using these data, the following analysis is executed. The Cobb-Duglass function is used as the demand function. The willingness to pay is used to analyze the effect of reduction of burden. From the results of the analysis related to the effect of the subsidy, regardless of the subsidy level, the demand of the arrangement of handrail was high, and the average of willingness to pay was nearly 1,100,000 yen.

日本建築学会計画系論文集


Cellular Automata Modeling For Fire Spreading As a Tool to Aid Community-Based Planning for Disaster Mitigation

As a tool to support collaboration in community-based planning for disaster mitigation in Japanese old wooden built-up areas, we attempt to develop a fire spreading simulation model incorporated a fire fighting activity using Cellular Automata (CA). The proposed model can deal with the process of fire spreading in a building that traditional models can not represent. Whether or not fire can spread is based on a stochastic calculation process to reproduce uncertain fire spreading. The errors caused by the stochastic factor are analyzed by carrying out simulation two or more times under the same condition. Moreover, the reproductivity of the model is examined by comparing simulation results with actual fire records.

Recent Advances in Design & Decision Support Systems in Architecture and Urban Planning


Development of an Environment Considered Planning Support System to Urban Development for Developing Countries

開発途上国における環境に配慮した都市開発のための計画支援システムの開発

Asian developing countries have been achieving rapidly economic growth due to large foreign investments. However in urban areas, environmental issues are occurring by rapid urbanization. Thus, appropriate urban development plans need to be made and implemented. However, in spite of the recognition of the necessity, developing countries are short of such planning experience, expertise as well as planners. Therefore, recently planning support systems using GISs, expert systems, and satellite data are attracting a great deal of attention in their countries. From the background, we have developed an expert system for supporting environmental zoning (EEZM) to grasp environmental preservation areas and a cellular automata urban growth model (CA model) to predict future urban expansions. The purpose of this paper is to develop a planning support system for environment-considered urban development in developing countries, based on EEZM and CA model we have developed. The system consists of a database, EEZM, CA model and an evaluation tool for development suitability, which are linked with a GIS. The system is developed by customizing ArcView and Spatial Analyst, using AVENUE. The modules of EEZM and CA model are written by Visual Basic and Visual C++. Generally, developing countries are short of geographical information. Then we arranged the data by using city maps, basic statistical materials and satellite data. The data are managed on ArcView. EEZM and CA model use grid cell data. EEZM produces an environmental zoning map, and shows development guidelines for each zone. The zoning map is based on 250 meters grid cell. CA model predicts a future urban growth based on different development scenarios, using 125 meters grid cell data like roads, stations, elevations, soils, and urban areas. The system allows users to evaluate development suitability by overlaying future urbanized area estimated by CA model with some types of environmental zone by EEZM. (1) Deforestation area: this area is detected by overlaying future urbanized area with natural environmental preservation zone. Although the area should be preserved, it has the potential of future urbanization. Thus, the information may be useful to control land development. (2) Eligible development area: this is based on the combination of future urbanized area with area except preservation zone and pollution and disaster control zone. The area has little natural environment to be conserved and little possibility of occurrence of pollution and disaster. Therefore, there may be no environmental problems even if the area is developed. (3) Pollution and disaster area: this is based on the combination of future urbanized area with pollution and disaster control zone. The area has the potential of future urbanization, in spite of the high possibility of the occurrence of pollution and disaster. Users can zone the subject area into several environmental zoning districts, predict future urbanization based on different development scenarios, and investigate the appropriateness of different kinds of future development using these three overlaid areas. The system can help decision-makers improve alternative plans and urban development through the interaction of EEZM and CA model inside GIS.

アジアの諸都市では急速な都市化にもとなう公害問題が深刻化しており，環境に配慮した都市開発が求められている．本研究では，環境ゾーニングマップ作成支援エキスパートシステム(EEZM)とセルラーオートマタ市街化予測モデル(CAモデル)をGIS上で統合した計画支援システムを開発することを目的とする．システムはデータベース，EEZM，CAモデル，都市開発の適性評価ツールから構成され，これらはGIS上で統合される．EEZMとCAモデルは，様々な開発シナリオの基でのシミュレーションを可能にするために，ユーザーによるパラメータの設定を可能にしている．さらに，環境ゾーニングマップと市街化予測結果を重ね合わせることで都市開発適性の評価に必要な情報を得ることができた．

Proceedings of the 23th Symposium on Computer Technology of Information, Systems and Applications

第23回日本建築学会情報·システム·利用·技術シンポジウム


CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELLING FOR ESTIMATING HISTORICAL CHANGE OF URBAN AREA

セルラーオートマタを用いた市街地形態変化のモデル開発

The purpose of this paper is to develop an urban growth model by cellular automata (CA). First, we tried to analyze the behavior of Batty and Xie's CA model, and understood its characteristics. Next, we modeled urban growth process based on their concept, and then developed a CA model. Our model is applied to Toyohashi-Toyokawa area and Mokpo city in Korea. The estimated urban area is compared with the actual urban area by Cramer's coefficient of contingency, Yule's coefficient of association and fractal dimension. From the results of simulation, we confirmed the reproductivity of urban growth for past about 100 years.

本研究ではセルラーオートマタ(CA)を用いて市街地の拡大成長モデルを開発することを目的とする．まず，CA都市モデルの既往研究をレビューし，その中からBatty and Xieのモデルに注目し，その挙動分析を行い特徴を把握した．そして彼らの考え方をもとに市街市拡大過程をモデル化し，それに合わせてモデルの開発を行った．開発したモデルは，豊橋·豊川地域，韓国木浦市に適用させ，約100年間の都市成長をシミュレートさせた．結果は相関係数，半径次元により現実の市街地と比較した結果，ほぼ現実の市街地の成長を再現することができた．

日本建築学会計画系論文集


Development of GIS-based Landuse Planning Support Tools using Personal Computer

パーソナルコンピュータ上で稼働するGISを用いた土地利用計画立案支援ツールの試験的開発

This paper describes GIS-based planning support tools using personal computers to help planners draw up alternatives. First, we indicate problems in conventional urban planning process at local governments, the present condition of planning support using GIS and GIS's problems to aid the planning. Being based on them, we attempt to develop GIS-based land-use planning support tools that enable a scientific and objective or rational approach to the planning process and that can be used even by local government's planners. Finally, we suggest the necessity and possibility of the approach by computer applications to the planning process.

本稿は，地方自治体における計画策定過程を支援するためのパーソナルコンピュータ上で稼働するGISを用いた土地利用計画支援ツールの開発について述べている．まず従来の自治体における都市計画プロセスの問題を整理し，GISを用いた計画支援システムの現状と計画を支援するためのGISの課題について検討している．そしてこれらの諸課題を踏まえて，ツールの開発を試みた．システムは，計画担当者の使いやすさ，分かり易さ，経済性を考慮し，市販のGISソフトをカスタマイズして開発した．その結果，データ管理の効率化が図られただけでなく，これまで専門家の経験的知識に頼った計画立案作業に比べて，計画策定の科学性，客観性を向上させるツールが提案できた．

日本都市計画学会学術研究論文集


EVELOPMENT OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLANNING SUPPORT EXPERT SYSTEM USING SATELLITE DATA --- Application to Developing Countries

人工衛星データを用いた都市環境管理支援エキスパートシステムの開発と開発途上国への適用 --- Application to Developing Countries

The purpose of this paper is to develop an environmental management support expert system for developing countries. First, we arrange the knowledge base from environmental management plans of Japanese four cities. It consists of environmental zoning areas, environmental guidelines, evaluation items and database required for reasoning. Then, we propose the evaluation method and indexes that enable to infer within the limits of data acquired, especially using satellite data as a substitute for landuse and vegetation data, and formulate the inference using fuzzy set theory. Finally, the usefulness of the system is shown through the application to Oita, Kitakyushu, Mokpo and Ujung Pandang.

本研究は，公害問題を克服してきた技術を有する日本の環境管理計画を基に，公害問題が深刻化している途上国における環境管理支援エキスパートシステムの開発を目的としている．具体的には，日本の環境管理計画から結論として提示すべき地域，環境配慮方針，評価項目，データを抽出して知識ベースを構築し，推論の流れを作成した．さらに環境関連データの少ない途上国での適用を考慮し，最低限のデータで推論が可能な評価方法，指標を提案した．中でも，衛星データを土地利用，植生データの代替として活用した．システムは大分，北九州，木浦，ウジュンパンダン市に適用させ，妥当な結果を得ることができ，システムの有効性を示すことができた．

日本建築学会計画系論文集


A Study on the Flood Disaster Risk considering the Infiltration and Storage Function of Rain Water in Tokushima Urban Area

徳島都市圏における土地の雨水浸透・貯留機能に着目した洪水災害リスクに関する研究

福島復興の環境都市計画の視点からの検証および災害復興準備に関する公開研究会

福島復興の環境都市計画の視点からの検証および災害復興準備に関する公開研究会


セルオートマトンを用いた地方都市郊外部における市街化予測モデルの開発

セルオートマトンを用いた地方都市郊外部における市街化予測モデルの開発


環境に配慮した都市開発の適性評価支援GISツールの構築と途上国への適用

環境に配慮した都市開発の適性評価支援GISツールの構築と途上国への適用