Tong Zhao and 水ノ上 智邦(徳島文理大学) : Why was Chinese P2P Lending driven into bankruptcy rush?, Journal of Personal Finance, 7, 48-65, 2020.
(Summary)
<p>The P2P lending suffered a big bankruptcy rush in mid-2018 in China. Prior studies explaining the reasons can be divided into external factor theory and market failure theory. The former is attributed to tight monetary policies, economic recession, and the tightening of regulations. The latter is attributed to information asymmetry and investor bias. We propose an internal factor theory that is different from prior studies. Chinese P2P lending platforms were forced to pursue scale expansion with significant risks (full guarantee risk and disclosure risk), which can cause platform bankruptcy, because the platform has a special characteristic: a financial company while being an IT company. Since this characteristic, platforms, entering the P2P lending market, are in the situation of`` prisoner's dilemma of the arms race'' and are forced to scale up to monopolize the market. In other words, the reason for the bankruptcy rush is the same reason for the rapid growth of the P2P lending market. Risks that had been postponed for the expansion of scale come to the surface as the deterioration of the external environment. In short, the occurrence of the bankruptcy rush was already inevitable at the same time as the rapid growth of the P2P lending market.</p>
Tong Zhao, Motohiro Ishida and Kota Hattori : The Discrimination against Non-financial Characteristics of Borrowers in Chinese P2P Lending, Journal of Personal Finance, 7, 13-24, 2020.
(Summary)
<p>The market of Chinese P2P Lending has rapidly grown in the last ten years. We use transaction records of RRD, which is one of the leading platforms in Chinese P2P Lending, to analyze the financial discrimination in this market. Using the non-financial characteristics of borrowers, including five variables--gender, age, educational background, marital status, and working location, we estimate the funding rate, default rate, and return rate of the loan securities. Different from standard economics, the estimation results of these variables are significant, which means that non-financial characteristics are as important as financial ones for lenders. Moreover, we find that the discrimination regarding gender, marital status, and working location is rational statistical discrimination, while discrimination on age is irrational taste-based discrimination.</p>
Tong Zhao and Tomokuni MIZUNOUE : Influence of Regular Employment on Marriage of Male, Journal of Population Studies, 37, 50, 75-88, 2014.
(Summary)
The purpose of this paper is that in order to elucidate the cause of the tendency to marry later or not marry, to investigate whether the type of employment affects the marital experience of man. It examines, applying the method of logistic regression to data drawn from Employment Status Survey by Ministry of internal affairs and communications. We hypothesized that upon selection of a marriage partner, to observe the signal that indicates the future income of men and women decide to get married on the basis of it. These are considered as a signal of future income of men that form of employment (regular employment of non-regular employment), that of first job, educational background or job changing. Based on the hypothesis, we analyzed which factors affect the rate of marital experience and how the effects of the factors vary by age group. The conclusions derived from the analysis are as follows. (1) To be a regular employment that is his signal of future income increases the probability of marriage of men through all age groups. (2) For the generation that graduated from the university after the collapse of the bubble economy, the employment patterns of first job was atypical reduces the probability of marriage experience. On the other hand, in previous generations it has no significant effect. (3) In the twenties and thirties, educational background is not effective as a signal of future income. And higher education is promoting the tendency to delay marriage of men.
(Keyword)
Employment Status / Marriage / Declining Birth Rate
Tong Zhao and 佐野 和夫 : Inflation Dynamics with Bounded Rationality, Journal of Business & Economics, 6, 1, 1-22, 2014.
(Keyword)
bounded rationality / Keynesian Phillips curve
10.
Tong Zhao : Fetility Choice and Capital Accumulation in a Two-Setor Model of Economic Growth, Journal of Economics, 107, 1, 12-30, 2006.
(Summary)
This paper considers a two-sector endogenous growth model in which both human capital accumulation and physical capital accumulation are one of engines in economic growth. The model is also a dynastic model. In the model, parents choose own consumption, intergenerational transfers and fertility, and decide time spent in education which determines human capital accumulation in next period. It becomes clear that the relation between fertility and human capital accumulation is negative. With economic growth, the ratio of physical capital accumulation to human capital accumulaiton goes down, and human capital accumulation becomes more important than physical capital accumulation in economic growth. It also is clear that, in order for human capital accumulation and economic growth, not physical capital or consumption but fertility is sacrificed.
(Keyword)
Two-sector model of economic growth / Physical and human capital ratio / Fertility choice
Tong Zhao : Endogenous Fertilty, Child Labor and Economic Growth, Journal of Economics, 105, 1, 166-192, 2004.
(Summary)
We apply a dynamic model to a closed economy where parents decide fertility and child labor along with consumption and intergenerational transfers. In the model, parents are altruistic toward children, allocating children's time for leisure and child labor. We adopt "the luxury axiom" and the substitution axiom" of Basu and Van (1998), but modify "the luxury axiom" to recognize that child labor can be determined not as a corner solution but as an interior solution. This setup can result in the multiple steady-states, and which of steady-states is chosen is not dependent on coordination or other reasons based on externality, but on the utility levels of each steady-state. It becomes clear that, although parents are altruistic toward children, the relation between fertility and child labor is positive in the steady-state.
Academic Paper (Unrefereed Paper):
1.
Tong Zhao and MIZUNOUE Tomokuni : Innovation in Chinese Third-Party Payment Institutions, 東アジアへの視点, 31, 1, 57-76, 2020.
Tong Zhao and Tomokuni MIZUNOUE : Factor analysis of Late Marriage and Non-Marriage of Tokushima Prefecture, Social Science Research University of Tokushima, 29, 131-193, 2016.
Tong Zhao and Tomokuni MIZUNOUE : The Feature of Marriage among Yong Adult of Tokushima Prefecture, Regional Science Research, the University of Tokushima, 4, 1, 11-52, 2014.
(Keyword)
Tokushima prefecture / Late Marriage and Non-marriage / Employment Status Survey
Tong Zhao : Phased Economic Growth, Poverty Traps and Overtaking, Social Science Research University of Tokushima, 21, 21, 59-78, 2008.
(Summary)
This paper presents a unified endogenous growth model which can explain the phased economic growth and the posibility of poverty traps and overtaking. Shift in the prime economic growth engines is the main mechanism for the phased economic growth. And the timing of shift in the prime engines decides whether economy is in sustainable growth or fall into poverty traps or catch-up and overtaking. To explain poverty traps and overtaking, such severe assumption as increasing returns or intermediate critical value which are widely used in pervious studies are not assumed in this paper.
Tong Zhao : Endogenous Fertility, Rearing Cost of Children and Economic Growth, Osaka Keidai Ronshu, 53, 4, 371-391, 2002.
(Summary)
We apply a dynastic model to an economy where parents make choice of fertility along with decisions about consumption and intergenerational transfers. We consider that rearing children takes an opportunity cost associated with the parental wage, since it brings about subtraction from the time available for work. We show that fertility is negatively related to child-rearing cost in the steady-state, which Barro and Becker (1989) rejects. We also show that fertility is negatively related to the degree of parental altruism toward their children in the steady-state, which is contrary to the contention of Becker and Barro (1988) and Barro and Becker (1989).
Review, Commentary:
1.
Tong Zhao : 厳 善平著『中国の人口移動と民工』に関する書評, The Journal of Population Studies, 38, 131, May 2006.
Et cetera, Workshop:
1.
Tong Zhao : The Frontier of Population Theory in Macroeconomics, PH. D. Dissertation, Sep. 2003.